[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 7/9/2003 5:05:32 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 092143
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
442 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2003

WILL KEEP THIS SHORT DUE TO POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER TIME
CONSTRAINTS.  WARM FRONT EXTENDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM A NORTHWEST
MISSOURI LOW...ALONG THE MISSOURI-IOWA LINE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE MISSOURI LOW TO A SECOND
OCCLUDED LOW IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  UPPER 70S DEW POINTS HAVE
WORKED THEIR WAY NORTH TO INTERSTATE 80 ON THE IOWA SIDE.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FIRE NEAR OTTUMWA.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS IS IN THE SHORT
TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLOODING.  AFTER THAT...THE WEATHER QUIETS DOWN...
BRINGING SOME RELIEF IN THE FORM OF LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

UPPER SUPPORT AT THE JET LEVEL...COMBINED WITH HIGH CAPES...AND THE
FRONTS ACROSS THE AREA...WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THIS EVENING. MISSOURI LOW WILL MOVE TO KEOKUK THIS EVENING AS THE
MINNESOTA LOW MOVES ACROSS MINNESOTA.  THE MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER THE SOUTHERN LOW REMAINS PRIMARY...OR IS
SUPERSEDED BY THE NORTHERN LOW.  3-HR PRESSURE FALL PATTERN DOES
NOT RESOLVE THIS QUESTION AT PRESENT.  EITHER WAY THE ADJOINING COLD
FRONT MOVES THRU IN THE 06Z-09Z TIME FRAME. PLENTY OF UPPER SUPPORT
THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS MOST FAVORABLE...OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  BEST ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL IOWA...JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
THE BEST CAPES.  THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD...INCREASING IN
STRENGTH WITH LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS...WITH THE BEST STRENGTH
PROBABLY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HAIL.  THE STRENGTH OF THE MCS
WILL POSSIBLY INCREASING AS IT HEADS EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS EVENING.  TRIPLE POINT UNCERTAINTIES
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF TRACK OF SURFACE LOW...HOWEVER...ISOLATED
TORNADOS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THRU THE
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU MIDNIGHT...THUS THE
FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO SATURATED SOILS MANY AREAS.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...A WEAK TROF WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA
SATURDAY...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT POSSIBLY IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

REA