[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 7/8/2003 4:57:30 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 082130
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
225 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2003


ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY.  MODELS STILL 
DISAGREEING ON WEDNESDAYS UNUSUALLY POTENT SYSTEM.  MODELS HAVE 
SHIFTED SURFACE LOW TRACK NORTH FROM YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS...BUT THEY 
DON'T AGREE ON HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW WILL GO.  THE GFS HAS BEEN THE 
MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR ITS 
SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.

HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY 
EVENING.  THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES ARE AT THE 
GREATEST RISK FOR FLOODING DUE TO THE NEARLY SATURATED SOILS FROM 
RECENT HEAVY RAINS IN THESE AREAS.  LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS 
BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KOMA THROUGH KMUT TO KPIA.  MODELS HOLD FRONT IN 
PLACE OVERNIGHT. FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERTORM 
DEVELOPENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS INCREASING LLJ INTERSECTS 
FRONTAL ZONE.  NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL BE UNDER THE GUN AGAIN LATER 
TONIGHT WITH MODELS SUGGEST A MCS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST NE OR 
SE SD AND MOVE EAST. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE AN INTERESTING DAY WITH 
ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH NRN IA OR SRN MN LATE 
IN THE DAY.  MODELS LIFT WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN CWA  DURING THE 
DAY CREATING...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN NORTHEAST OF THE FRONT.  
THEN GREATEST SEVERE THREAT EVOLVES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING AS LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE CWA.  CURRENT 
FORECAST WAS ON TRACK WITH THIS THINKING AND MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS 
TO THE WORDING. AFTER WEDNESDAY EVENING MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL 
SETTLE IN AS NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP.  

LONG RANGE MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND 
COOLER/DRIER AIRMAS PLACE OVER CWA INTO THE WEEKEND. HAVE BACKED OFF 
TEMPS A LITTLE ESPECIALLY FRIDAY/SATURDAY.  GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A 
STRONG WAA SETTING UP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 08/00Z GFS IS A LITTLE 
SLOWER THAN THE 07/00Z RUN.  WILL MAINTAIN POPS FOR RETURN OF WARM 
AIR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  GFS BRINGS FRONT THROUGH REGION LATE 
TUESDAY.  AT THIS POINT MODEL SUGGESTS A CAP A HEAD OF FRONT...BUT 
WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POP FOR NOW.  

DVN...
IA...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
IL...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MO...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.


$$
DLF