[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 7/8/2003 2:27:14 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 080725
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
225 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2003


ALL THE LATEST INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW OMINOUS WEATHER SCENARIO 
THROUGH MID WEEK.  PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAS THIS WELL IN HAND. 
THEREFORE...WILL HIGHLIGHT PERIODS OF GREATEST THREATS.  THE FIRST 
THREAT WILL BE ONGOING...OR DECAYING CONVECTION DURING THE FIRST 
PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN...RECEIVED DURING PAST MCS EVENTS THE PAST 
SEVERAL DAYS...AND THIS PAST EVENINGS HEAVY PRECIP OVER THE CENTRAL 
AND EASTERN CWA...HAVE INCREASED THE THREAT OF FLOODING FOR THE 
ENTIRE AREA. LAKE ENHANCED EAST TO WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME 
MORE FOCUSED AND WELL DEFINED LATER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.  WITH 
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MCS ACTIVITY LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY 
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WE MAY HAVE BOTH FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS AS WELL 
AS RIVER FLOODING BY WEDNESDAY.  THE AREA MOST AT RISK WILL BE 
BETTER DEFINED BY THIS AFTERNOON...AS THIS MORNINGS ROUND OF 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CERTAINLY INCREASE THE THREAT WHERE THE MAXIMUM 
RAINFALL OCCURS. ELEVATED MORNING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH ONLY TO 
BE REPLACED BY A STRONG MCV ROLLING OUT OF NEBRASKA.  LIKELY POPS 
WILL BE NEEDED TO COVER THIS...WITH HEAVY RAIN WORDING AREA WIDE. 
MENTION OF SEVERE MAY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 AS WELL...DUE TO 
HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT...WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR AND WELL DEFINED EAST 
WEST BOUNDARY. THIS WILL BE NOT UNLIKE WHAT OCCURRED IN EASTERN IOWA 
AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS PAST EVENING. 

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON CLOUD COVER...WHICH 
IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE PERSISTENT NORTH OF THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY.  WILL GO NEAR 80 NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTH...WITH A TIGHT 
GRADIENT JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. AS DISCUSSED ABOVE...THIS 
BOUNDARY IS LIKELY GOING TO BE MORE INTENSE WEDNESDAY.  WILL HAVE 
CLOUDS AND STORMS AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE NORTHERN TIER...WITH 
CONVECTION FIRING UP LATER IN THE DAY SOUTH.  HIGHS IN THE EXTENDED 
WILL BE LOWERED SLIGHTLY AS MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONGER HIGH 
BUILDING IN.  A WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT/HUMIDITY/VOLATILE 
WEATHER OF THE PAST WEEK BEGINS THURSDAY. LEFT REMAINDER OF THE 
EXTENDED LARGELY THE SAME. 

AS NOTED FROM PREVIOUS AFD...
THE KDVN DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO BE OUT OF SERVICE. PARTS ARE ON 
ORDER AND THEY WON/T ARRIVE UNTIL THIS MORNING. THE RADAR SHOULD BE 
BACK IN SERVICE SOMETIME THIS MORNING. WE APPRECIATE ALL OF THE 
ASSISTANCE FROM SURROUNDING WFO/S AND OUR MEDIA PARTNERS! CONTINUED 
ASSISTANCE DURING THE EARLY MORNING WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.  

ERVIN

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.


$$