[LeArc] MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1653

[Duane Whittingham]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1653
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
200 PM CDT SUN JUL 06 2003
   
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...SRN WI...NRN IL...NW IN...SRN LAKE MI
   
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 653...
   
VALID 061900Z - 062100Z
   
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...AND
WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  CONTINUE WWS...653/654/655.
   
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGRESSING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS.  ASSOCIATED FORCING
FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS SUPPORTING ONGOING INCREASE IN
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  THOUGH ACTIVITY IS STILL WIDELY
SCATTERED...FURTHER INCREASE/INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR INTO PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING...WITH A GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION IN A LARGE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.  MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG 
MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL THREAT IN MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT LOCALLY VERY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BECOME SUBSTANTIAL THREAT WITH EVOLVING MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CHICAGO AREA.  SIGNIFICANT SURFACE COLD
POOL/MESO HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS INCREASING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT SURGES EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA.
   
..KERR.. 07/06/2003

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Duane Whittingham (N9SSN) - Producer
Tom and Darryl Radio Shows & Saturday Morning Confusion
Heard on C-Band Analog Satellite (W0KIE) - GE7-CH5-7.5 mHz
WTND-LP Macomb 106.3, WQNA FM, WBCQ 7415 kHz & the Internet.
Heard Fridays 9pm ET, Sundays 12am ET and Tuesdays 1am ET
An Independent Freeform Eclectic Radio Show.
http://www.tomanddarryl.org
http://www.wtnd.us

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