[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 7/5/2003 9:21:46 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 060220 CCA
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
915 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2003

BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH MAIN THREAT FLASH 
FLOODING GIVEN INTENSE RATES AND REPETITIVE NATURE.
HOWEVER...DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS
VAN BUREN...LEE...SCOTLAND...CLARK...HANCOCK...HENDERSON AND MCDONOUGH
COUNTIES AS BOW ECHO IS ORGANIZING INTO VAN BUREN COUNTY WITH 
DEVELOPING TRATIFORM RAIN REGION. BRIEF LOOK AT SYNOPTIC SITUATION 
SHOWS BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL NE THROUGH SOUTHERN IA INTO WEST CENTRAL 
IL. SHORTWAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN SOUTHWEST IA WILL 
PROPAGATE EASTWARD OVER THE COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS ALONG WITH LOW 
LEVEL JET WHICH IS REFOCUSING BACK WEST IN THE PLAINS AHEAD OF 
SEVERE COMPLEX IN NORTHERN NE SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL DIMINISHING 
TREND TO CONVECTION NEXT 2 HOURS. THINK WE/LL SEE A BREAK FOR A 
WHILE OVERNIGHT BEFORE DEALING WITH THIS CONVECTION MOVING E/SE FROM 
THE THE PLAINS. BELIEVE THIS COMPLEX WILL PROPAGATE ALONG OLD 
BOUNDARY PUTTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA MOST AT RISK ATTIM. THIS 
PRESENTS CONCERNS ESPECIALLY WITH HYDRO WITH SOME FLASH FLOODING 
ALREADY BEING REPORTED...THOUGH ONLY IN 3-4 COUNTIES...SO NOT MUCH 
OF THE AREA IMPACTED. DUE TO LIMITED AREA BEING IMPACTED WITH HEAVY 
RAIN AND SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE INTENSITY AND EVOLUTION OF 
CONVECTION IN THE PLAINS...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HYDRO HEADLINES ATTIM 
THOUGH WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN ZONES.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

05