[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 7/5/2003 3:54:22 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 050841
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
341 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2003

NONLINEAR PROCESSES CONTINUE TO BE THE DRIVING FACTORS IN THE
OVERALL WEATHER SCHEME. MCS BAKER ROLLING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWFA
ATTM JUST NORTH OF H85 TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL SET OUT
ANOTHER COLD POOL TO HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OR SO. SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM BAKER...TEMPS TO RISE
INTO THE 90S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. WEAK VORT MAX TO MOVE
THROUGH AROUND MID DAY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTH THIRD OF CWFA...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT MCS CHARLIE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH CWFA...ROUGHLY IN
THE SAME AREA AS BAKER AND END EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AREAS SOUTH OF
I80 TO SEE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP AGAIN. DESPITE COLD POOL SUNDAY...
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS A LITTLE.

SHOULD SEE A REPRIEVE FROM THE MCS TRAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING AS NO VORT TO GET THINGS GOING. FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER THIS IS NOT CERTAIN AS
ANY NONLINEAR PROCESSES COULD CHANGE THIS AND MAKE MON/MON NIGHT DRY.

GREAT POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURE BUSTS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG COLD POOL IS AND ITS AREAL EXTENT.  DIDN/T
TOUCH THE EXTENDED DUE TO TIME CONSTRAINTS.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

SF