[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 7/4/2003 5:07:41 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 042142
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
440 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2003

COMPLICATED FORECAST FORTHCOMING ESPECIALLY IN THE NEAR TERM WITH 
REGARDS TO CONVECTION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. 
BASICALLY JUST WAITING FOR A MATCH TO IGNITE THE POWDERKEG.
EXTREME INSTABILITY FOUND ATTIM ACROSS THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...WITH CAPES AOA 4000 J/KG AND LI/S NEAR -12. 
CAP PER 18Z KILX SOUNDING KEEPING A LID ON THINGS ATTIM...BUT THINGS
APPEAR TO BE CHANGING OUT TO OUR WEST AS SHORTWAVE AND 
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET INCREASE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH NOTED 
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL RETURNS OVER PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND 
NORTHWEST IOWA. THIS LIFT COUPLED WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET 
WILL LIKELY IGNITE CONVECTION THIS EVENING ALONG AND JUST 
NORTH OF THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WITH THE GENESIS REGION
POSSIBLY IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/NORTHERN KANSAS/SOUTHWEST IOWA AND
NORTHWEST MISSOURI. EXTREME HEAT AND INSTABILITY WOULD FEED THIS CONVECTION
WHICH WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER DAMAGING DERECHO OR LINEAR MCS
WITH SEVERE WINDS OF 60 TO 90 MPH. GREATEST THREAT AREA WOULD BE
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30...WITH THE THREAT INCREASING HEADING SOUTH.
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED WITH TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE...THOUGH
IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS COLD POOL AND ACCELERATES THEN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE LESSENED.
WET BULB ZERO/S ARE QUITE HIGH...SO HAIL THREAT MINIMAL THOUGH NOT 
OUT OF QUESTION DUE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY. MAX HAIL SIZE AROUND 1
INCH. NEXT AREA OF CONCERN IS WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER 
NORTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. INSTABILITY IS NOT AS EXTREME
IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA WITH CAPES BETWEEN 
1000-1500 J/KG AND LI/S OF -2 TO -6. CORFIDI VECTORS TAKE THIS
ACTIVITY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING. 
NOT TO EXCITED ABOUT SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS CONVECTION AS AIRMASS
SOMEWHAT STABALIZED ACROSS THE NORTH FROM EARLY MORNING DERECHO...
ALTHOUGH SOME RECOVERY IS UNDERWAY WITH LLVL WINDS BECOMING 
SOUTHERLY. WILL KEEP SEVERE MENTION UP NORTH FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT...THOUGH
NOT TOO CONFIDENT AND CAN REMOVE MENTION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ON SATURDAY...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MOVING OUT DURING THE MORNING.
BANKING ON DEBRIS CLOUDS TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION.
EVEN IF DEBRIS CLOUDS EXIT SOONER ALLOWING FOR MORE INSTABILITY...THERE
IS NOT MUCH FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OTHER THAN
OUTFLOWS...THOUGH CAPPING INVERSION COULD SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THESE. THEREFORE...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. 

ANOTHER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE AREA 
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...COUPLED WITH
LLJ AND BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH INTO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. 
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. HEAVY RAIN AND WIND 
AGAIN THE MAIN THREATS. 

EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE LIFTING OUT AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
THE AFTERNOON QUIET AT ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO RELOAD. 
AT THIS TIME...KEPT POPS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH BOUNDARY LIFTING INTO 
THE FAR NORTH COULD SEE THREAT OF COMPLEX HIGHWAY 30 AND TO 
THE NORTH. HOWEVER...TRIED TO PUT SOME DRY HOURS IN A SOMEWHAT WORDY 
FORECAST WITH RAIN CHANCES NEXT 4-5 DAYS. MID CREW WILL WANT
TO GIVE THIS ANOTHER LOOK. 

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGGED ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER WITH
BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA. NEXT FRONT ORGANIZES IN THE 
PLAINS. KEPT CHANCE POPS...THOUGH FOCUS MAY END UP BEING WELL
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ON MONDAY. NEXT SHOT OF PCPN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY AS THE FRONT IN THE PLAINS MOVES 
CLOSER.  

EXTENDED (TUE-FRI)...
FRONTAL ZONE HANGS AROUND THROUGH MIDWEEK WARRANTING CHANCE POPS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEST COAST TROUGH DIGGING RESULTING IN
DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING OVER REGION. THIS WILL AID IN 
SUPPRESSING FRONTAL ZONE WELL TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EXTENDED.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$


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