[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 7/4/2003 6:11:28 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 041108
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
608 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2003

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO DROP WATCH AND REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS
REGARDING LACK OF RAIN. THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING WILL
LIKELY PLAY INTO AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES. BELIEVE WE WILL BE
CLOSE BUT NOT QUITE HIT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR HEAT THIS AFTERNOON.
DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS VERY CAREFULLY.


NONLINEAR MESOSCALE PROCESSES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER IN THE CWFA FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENT DERECHO JUST SKIMMING THE NORTHERN
CWFA WILL PUSH A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HANGS UP OVER THE CWFA
DURING THE DAY. CURRENT SHRA/TSRA SHOULD END AROUND MID DAY...
FOLLOWED BY 3-4 HOURS OF STRONG INSOLATION. GENESIS OF NEXT MCS
SHOULD BE IN SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH IT AFFECTING NORTHERN CWFA THIS
EVENING AND SOUTH THIRD OF CWFA AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PWS MEAN HEAVY
RAIN WITH SOME TRAINING POSSIBLE TONIGHT SOUTH THIRD. COLD POOL TO
AID IN SUPPRESSING CONVECTION UNTIL MID AFTERNOON...SO WHEN IT GOES
LOOK OUT.

MCS BAKER TO AFFECT CWFA THROUGH MID DAY SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER
BOUNDARY BEING LAID OUT. THIS BOUNDARY TO BE THE FOCUS FOR MCS
CHARLIE TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN WESTERN IOWA.
THIS MAY AFFECT US SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ALLOW COMPRESSIONABLE HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND BOOSTING TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE. THIS ALL BEFORE NEXT
ROUND OF CONVECTION TO FIRE.

DIDN/T TOUCH THE EXTENDED DUE TO TIME CONSTRAINTS.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

SF