[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 7/2/2003 4:26:58 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 020918
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
417 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2003

SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKING DOWN OVER THE AREA...AND SOME PUNY
LITTLE THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED THE FAR NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI COUNTIES
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVED ACROSS THE CWA AND INTERACTED WITH THE LOW 70S
DEWPOINTS THAT WERE POOLED ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI.  SOME OTHER
INTERESTING RADAR RETURNS SHOWED UP AFTER SUNSET...INITIALLY SHOWING
UP CLOSE TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BLOOMING INTO FAIRLY GOOD SIZED
BLOBS...AND DRIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST FOR ALMOST 2 HRS BEFORE THEY
DISSIPATED.  THEORY FOR NOW IS THAT WE JUST HAD A BIG MAYFLY
HATCH...THOUGH DONT HAVE ANY OTHER DATA TO BACK THAT UP.

THROUGH THURSDAY...QUIET WX TO CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENCE THE BEST
TOOL TO USE. TEMPS TO SLOWLY CLIMB ALONG WITH DEW POINTS. WEAK VORT
MOVING THROUGH TODAY SHOULD INITIATE TSRA ALONG LAKE BREEZE TO THE
EAST OF CWFA BACK TOWARD KPIA AREA. MIGHT SEE AN ISOLATED TSRA
DEVELOP IN FAR EASTERN PARTS OF CWFA LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
HOT AND HUMID WITH TEMPS AROUND OR A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE. SHOULD
SEE BEGINNINGS OF A SEVERE MCS DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
KFSD/KSUX AREA WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE INTERESTING WX STARTING
THURSDAY EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF AN MCS FORMING
ALONG IT SOMEWHERE...CURRENT MODELS POINTING AT THE SOUTHERN
MN/NORTHERN IA AREA...WHICH WOULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING.   WITH THE FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHEAST...MORE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.  SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BEGINNING
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THE FRONT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT IT SHOULD BE DRY
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EVEN MOST OF SUNDAY BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SUNDAY A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA...DRAGGING A
FRONT ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
STALLING THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY.  PRECIP CHANCES START OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
SUNDAY...SPREADING EAST OVERNIGHT...AND THEN CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  THIS NEW SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER AT SOME TIME DURING THIS PERIOD.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

LE/SF