[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 1/26/03 4:09:20 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 262218
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
418 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2003

THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
WELL EAST OF THE AREA...WITH A 1040MB HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.  A THIN SNOW COVER BLANKETS ALMOST THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA FROM LAST NIGHT'S 0.5 TO 1 INCH SNOWFALL. AT 500MB
THE TROF IS ALSO WELL EAST...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BUILDING IN.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE IN THE FIRST 48
HOURS.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW MONDAY...WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.  MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...BUT
THIS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...EXCEPT NORTH...AND ON THE
TRAILING EDGE IN THE EVENING.

THE SHORT-TERM MODELS AGREE ON MASSIVE WARM ADVECTION TONIGHT...
MONDAY...AND TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  850MB
TEMPS WARM 20C IN 24 HOURS...FROM NEAR -18C AT 00Z THIS EVENING...TO
2C AT 00Z MONDAY EVENING.  VV'S IN THE MORNING MONDAY...IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER JET...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL BRING SNOW TO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS...WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY FROM CEDAR RAPIDS TO CLINTON NORTHWARD.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD PROFILE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE...INITIATING
IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. PRECIP WITH COLD FRONT TUESDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY RAIN AS 540 THICKNESS HEADS NORTH...EXCEPT NORTHERN TWO
TIERS OF COUNTIES...WHERE COULD SEE A MIX OR ALL SNOW.  BASED ON QPF
AMOUNTS...ANY SNOW NORTH COULD BE A FEW INCHES...BUT ALSO COULD BE
SLOPPY MIX.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY...WARM
AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY...AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE
12Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS INDICATED IN THE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. PER MEDIUM-RANGE TRENDS HELD OFF
PRECIP WITH THIS TIL SUNDAY.

HAVE STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST. MID SHIFT CAN TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK AT POTENTIAL AND TIMING FOR ONSET OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
MONDAY...AS HAVE CURRENTLY LIMITED TO EVENING BUT COULD START
EARLIER.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

REA