[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 1/25/03 4:18:54 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 252225
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
425 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2003

THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A BROAD TROF AT 500H OVER
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY...A RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST...AND A STRONG SHORT WAVE SWEEPING DOWN THRU THE DAKOTAS.  AT
THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE...
IS MOVING THRU NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL
EXIT SOUTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT.  A STRONG TEMPERATURE CONTRAST EXISTS
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH MID 30S AHEAD...DROPPING TO THE MID TEENS A
100 MILES BEHIND.  A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOW IS FOLLOWING JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THIS PACKAGE IS IN THE SHORT TERM...
WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.  LOOKING FURTHER
AHEAD...MINOR DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE AREA IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS...
WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKING US OUT OF THE BITTER
COLD AFTER THE FIRST 36 HOURS.  PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE TRICKY AS
STILL NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...ALTHO THE FETCH OFF THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC COULD BRING US AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOW
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY/SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL HAVE
MODIFIED ENOUGH BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY TO PRECLUDE SNOW.

LOOKING AT THE SHORT TERM...THE SNOW BAND WILL MOVE THRU THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...EXITING SOUTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT.  A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE LOCALLY.  WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST LATE EVENING AND CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25
THROUGH LATE MORNING.  THIS WILL COMBINE WITH NEAR ZERO
TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT NORTHWEST TO PRODUCE 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO
ADVISORY CONDITIONS.  TEMPERATURES WILL EDGE UP MIDDAY SUNDAY...
BRINGING OUT OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS...BUT WINDS WILL STILL BE BRISK
INTO MID AFTERNOON.  OVERALL...A VERY COLD DAY.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
MONDAY...AND SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MAIN
PUNCH STAYING NORTH ON TUESDAY.  WEAK TO MODERATE VV'S...AT A JET
OVER THE AREA...WILL PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR SNOW MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...ALTHO CHANCES OF MEASURABLE NOT LARGE.  THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS AGREE...ONLY BARELY...THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA ON THURSDAY...STALL...AND FINALLY MOVE THRU IN THE FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME. AGAIN NOT HIGH CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL SOUTH.

WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT TREND.  WILL BACK OFF ON HIGHS FOR
TUESDAY...AS CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
TAKE THE EDGE OFF RISES.

.DVN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOR AREAS
NEAR AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLIAMSBURG TO IOWA CITY TO TIPTON TO
CLINTON TO MOUNT CARROLL.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

REA