[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 1/15/03 3:39:41 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 152147
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
347 PM CST WED JAN 15 2003

OUT OF TIME DUE TO OTHER DISTRACTIONS THIS SHIFT. BRIEFLY...MODELS
DIDN/T INITIALIZE VERY WELL AND ARE MISSING SEVERAL LOW LEVEL
FEATURES THAT ARE PLAINLY VISIBLE ON THE SURFACE DATA (IE SEVERAL
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS). SYSTEM TO CLIP THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SO OF
THE CWFA LATE TONIGHT/THURS MORNING. LIKE THE NGM IDEA IN REGARDS TO
OMEGA FIELDS IN BRINGING A HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH WITH THE OTHER WELL SOUTH INTO MISSOURI. CURRENT REGIONAL
RADAR TRENDS WOULD GIVE CREDENCE TO THIS IDEA. PRECIP TO BEGIN
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD BE ESSENTIALLY OVER AROUND 15Z
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LINGERING FLURRIES WHICH SHOULD END AROUND MID
DAY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR TO REMAIN DRY TONIGHT/THURS AS SATURATION NEVER
OCCURS BELOW 800 MB. AMOUNTS TO BE HEAVIEST IN SOUTH THIRD WITH 3-6
AND IMMEDIATE GROUP NORTH OF 1-2. I80 CORRIDOR TO ABOUT HIGHWAY 30
AN INCH OR LESS. THIS ALL BASED ON 20 TO 1 RATIO.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURS NIGHT FRIDAY BRINGING QUIET
CONDITIONS. LAPSE RATES GET QUITE STEEP ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN
SATURDAY. WINDS NOT REALLY A PROBLEM FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA.

EXTENDED WISE...SEVERAL SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. FIRST TWO MAY ONLY BE FLURRIES OR A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW AS
THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SYSTEM MONDAY LOOKS SLIGHTLY
MORE IMPRESSIVE. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BECOMING MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH
AO INDEX GOING STRONGLY NEGATIVE AFTER THE WEEKEND. MODELS MAY STILL
BE PLAYING CATCH UP WITH TEMPERATURES BUT EITHER WAY ONE LOOKS AT
IT...IT WILL BE COLD.

.DVN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
IA...IAZ087>089-098-099.
IL...ILZ025-026-034-035.
MO...MOZ009-010.

SF