[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 1/13/03 9:24:39 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 140335
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
934 PM CST MON JAN 13 2003

DRY AIR BELOW H85 HAS KEPT PRECIP FROM EXCEEDING FLURRIES OVER
MOST OF FORECAST AREA SO FAR THIS EVENING. EXCEPTION IS FAR NW IL 
ZONES WHERE METARS HAVE SHOWN VISIBILITIES OF 2 TO 3 MILES WITH 
FIRST ROUND OF LIFT SEEN EXITING TO SOUTHEAST ON KDVN 88D. SECOND 
ROUND OF SNOW MORE CLOSELY TIED TO MAIN SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WV IMAGERY 
MOVING INTO SW MN AT 03Z REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1 TO 2 MILES FOR 
ABOUT 1.5 HOURS ON METARS IN SOUTHERN MN IN SECONDARY BAND SEEN ON 
88D MOSAIC. THIS LIFT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT AREA 
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KCID TO KVYS. LOCAL VISIBILITY/SNOWFALL 
TOOLS SUGGEST SNOWFALL OF NO MORE THAN AN INCH AS SECONDARY BAND 
MOVES ACROSS AREA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES HAVE BEEN BETTER 
PRIMED BY FIRST ROUND OF FLURRIES. MODELS SHOW QG LIFT RAPIDLY 
EXITING TO SE BY MIDNIGHT WITH SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM 140KT H3 
JET PROVIDING SOME LINGERING LIFT THROUGH MORNING TO SUPPORT 
FLURRIES INCLUDING AREAS FURTHER SW WHERE LOWER LEVELS DRIER AND 
CIGS SO FAR STAYING HIGHER. 

HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO REFLECT LESS OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL AND TO REMOVE
MENTION OF ACCUMULATION MOST ZONES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 IN IA. ALSO 
REMOVED POPS FOR SOUTHERN ZONES BUT LEFT IN FLURRIES. 

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

DLS