[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 2/26/03 3:33:47 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 260942
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
315 AM CST WED FEB 26 2003

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE KS/NE BORDER INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 
IS THE DOMININATING SURFACE FEATURE EARLY THIS MORNING.  S/W ENERGY 
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM HAS GENERATED SOME LIGHT SNOW 
FROM SERN KS NTO CENTRAL MO EARLY THIS MORNING.  NORTHERN EDGE OF 
CLOUD SHIELD FROM SYSTEM IS COVERING SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES WITH 
REST OF CWA UNDER A CLEAR SKY.  UPPER AIR FLOW REMAINS SPLIT WITH 
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERN STREAM NW FLOW.

MODEL INITIALIZED OK IN THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW.  HOWEVER...IT 
LOOKS LIKE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ETA...WERE WEAK WITH THE H3 JET 
MOVING THROUGH SW U.S.

WEATHER WILL BE RELATIVELY QUITE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HIGH 
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY.  MAIN FORECAST 
CONCERN WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS TODAY AND TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS.  MID DECK COVERING FAR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...IS 
STARTING TO FALL APART OVER SW IA.  CLEARING APPEARS TO BE 
ASSOCIATED WITH H5 S/W MOVING THROUGH MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY 
THIS MORNING.  S/W MOVES EAST OF REGION BY 12Z AND EXPECT CLEARING 
TO CONTINUE WEST TO EAST BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE.  CWA SHOULD SEE 
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY.  MIXING THOUGH WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO 
LIGHT WIND NEAR SFC RIDGE.  WILL KEEP TEMPS SIMILAR TO GOING 
FORECAST WHICH IS CLOSE TO MOS NUMBERS.  TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY 
WILL STICK CLOSE TO MOS NUMBERS...WHICH ARE IN LINE WITH CURRENT 
FORECAST.  MIXING WILL CONTINUED TO BE LIMITED WITH SURFACE RIDGE 
STAYING IN PLACE.  A WEAK S/W AND SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION 
THURSDAY...IN NORTHWEST FLOW...HOWEVER ONLY EXPECTING SOME MID/HIGH 
CLOUDS WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.   MOVED UP THE TIMING OF THE SN CHANCE 
FOR SATURDAY.  GFS LIFTS S/W OUT OF THE SW U.S. AND INTO THE CENTRAL 
PLAINS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.  SUFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ERN KS 
AND MO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD SOME -SN OVER AT 
LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.  REST OF THE EXTENDED REMAINS 
UNCHANGEDS.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$
DLF