[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 2/25/03 11:11:25 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 251719
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1120 AM CST TUE FEB 25 2003

SURFACE HIGH THAT MOVED OVER REGION THIS MORNING WAS OVER IL/IN LATE 
THIS MORNING. RETURN FLOW FROM SURFACE THROUGH H85 BEGINNING TO 
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS INDICATED BY NORTHWARD MOVING MID LEVEL 
DECK APPROACHING W CENTRAL MO. THIS RETURN FLOW GETTING BOOST FROM 
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA. BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH THIS 
MOISTURE RETURNS TO COINCIDE WITH MID AND JET LEVEL FORCING 
DEVELOPING OVER CWFA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SHORTWAVE 
MOVING SE OUT OF DAKOTAS APPROACHES. 

LOOKS LIKE THIS NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL LIMIT AND SUPPRESS 
NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN IN SOMEWHAT CONFLUENT FLOW OVER IA LATER 
TODAY. 12Z MODELS NOT POINTING TOWARD ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN 
SOUTH AND TEND TO AGREE GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER FROM THIS MORNINGS DVN 
SOUNDING. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THETA SURFACES SHOW ATMOSPHERE HAVING 
A HARD TIME SATURATING...ESPECIALLY IN THE H8 TO H9 LAYER. HAVE THUS 
SCALED BACK SNOW CHANCES IN GRIDS AND ZONE UPDATE IN SOUTH TO 
FLURRIES FOR LATE AFTERNOON... AND THEN TRIMMED BACK TO 30 PERCENT 
CHANCE WITH LIGHT SNOW IN ONLY SOUTHERN 2 TIERS OF COUNTIES FOR 
EVENING. TEMPERATURES LOOKED ON TRACK. 

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

DLS