[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 2/24/03 4:23:02 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 242228
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
428 PM CST MON FEB 24 2003

SYNOPTIC PICTURE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS 500MB TROF CURRENTLY MOVING
OVER FORECAST AREA WITH ACCOMPANYING VORT MAX.  PVA AND EXTREMELY
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT CREATED SNOW SHOWERS TODAY. STRATA CU WILL
CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING. WIND CHILLS WILL BE 10 T0 20 BELOW ZERO
EARLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND 0 TO 10 BELOW SOUTH...BUT WILL
DIMINISH AS THE SKIES CLEAR AND THE WINDS DECOUPLE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THIS PACKAGE IS IN THE SHORT TERM...I.E. THE
NEAR RECORD COLD TONIGHT.

SHORT-TERM MODELS AGREE ON THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING RIGHT OVERHEAD BY
LATE TONIGHT.  THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS LATE...
AND DEW POINTS NEAR MINUS 15 ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WILL PRODUCE NEAR RECORD LOWS.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOUTHEAST WHERE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT WILL TAKE THE
EDGE OFF MINS.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...A 500MB TROF WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA
AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING A CHANCE OF SNOW SOUTH.  THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AGREE...TO SOME EXTENT...ON THE NEXT COLD FRONT BEING
IN THE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...WITH A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY...WILL WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

FEW CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  KEPT CHANCE OF SNOW SOUTH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND INTRODUCED SNOW WITH THIS WEEKEND'S
SYSTEM.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

REA