[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 2/24/03 3:25:35 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 240934
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
334 AM CST MON FEB 24 2003

SNOW EVENT JUST ABOUT OVER IN THE CWFA AS SYSTEM MOVES UP THE OHIO
VALLEY. SECOND WEAK SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH H5 TROF TO ROTATE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY. H100-85 LAPSE RATES ARE 8+ AND H85-50
FRONTOGENESIS IS STRONG. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE --
SN/SHSN BEGINNING AROUND MID MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. DRY AIR ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CLEARING SKIES...BUT CAA SHOULD PREVENT ANY RISE IN TEMPS AS
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. BITTER COLD TONIGHT AS RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA
AND WINDS DROP OFF. NEW SNOW SHOULD AID IN RADIATING OUT (ALONG WITH
EVAPORATING) AND PUSH TEMPS CLOSER TO FWC. QUICK CHECK INDICATES NO
RECORDS SHOULD BE SET BUT COULD BE CLOSE IN A FEW LOCALES.

WILL NOT GO WITH HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILL TODAY/TONIGHT. CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO BE BORDERLINE IN THE NORTHWEST BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT ON
WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPS. MUCH OF AREA COULD BE CLOSE TO CRITERIA THIS
EVENING BEFORE WINDS DROP OFF.

WAA RETURNS CLOUDS ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IN
THE H85-50 LAYER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY LOW LEVELS BUT
THEY DO EVENTUALLY MOISTEN UP DURING THE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL THERE
FOR SOME --SN BUT WILL LET DAY SHIFT MULL THIS OVER FURTHER.

GLOBAL MODELS PUSH MID WEEK SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. AS A RESULT HAVE
LIMITED SNOW CHANCES TO SOUTH THIRD OF CWFA WITH --SN IN THE MIDDLE
THIRD. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IN SYSTEM COMPLETELY MISSES US.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

SF