[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 2/19/03 1:17:13 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 190723
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
120 AM CST WED FEB 19 2003

.OVERVIEW...ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING MOVING IN WITH NORTHERN EDGE OF
HIGH CLOUDS FROM PASSING STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING MO AS FAR NORTH AS I-
80. AWIPS DISTANCE TIME FEATURE SUPPORTS MOST OF THESE CLOUDS TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST NEAR 10Z CENTRAL AND AS LATE AS 15Z FAR SOUTH. THEN
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH SUBTLE W FLOW ALOFT AND LIGHT SFC WINDS.

...WARMUP NEXT FEW DAYS AND THEN WEEKEND POP POTENTIAL AND COOL DOWN
WITH NEXT ARCTIC SYSTEM FORECAST ISSUES...

.DIAGNOSIS AND DAYS 1-3...ETA 2M TEMPS UNUSABLE WITH SNOW FEEDBACK
PROBLEMS.  PERSISTENCE SUPPORTS GOING NEAR TO JUST ABOVE FWC BY 1
CATEGORY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE NEXT FEW DAYS.  SO...ALL SNOW SHOULD
BE GONE BY MID DAY THURSDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO NEAR 50 OR
EVEN MAKE LOWER 50S THU/FRI AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.  MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHIFT ALL FORCING OF SOUTHERN JET WELL TO SOUTH SO WILL PULL POPS TIL
WEEKEND. LOWS WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO FWC WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

.EXTENDED RANGE(SAT-TUE)...MODEL CONTINUE TO PUSH ALL FORCING WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND JET WELL SOUTH SO LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES MORE
REASONABLE SAT/SUN WITH NEXT SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR.  APPEARS VERY COLD
850 TEMPS OF -20C AND POSSIBLY AS COLD AS -28C TO -30C BY MONDAY SO
ONCE AGAIN EVEN WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOWCOVER...SHOULD SEE LOWS IN
SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.  HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO 20S WITH LOTS
OF HEATING FROM LATE FEBRUARY SUNSHINE AND DRY GROUND.  APPEARS WILL
STAY DRY THROUGH PERIOD AS JET STAYS SOUTH LIMITING MOISTURE AND
FORCING.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

NICHOLS