[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 2/11/03 3:37:33 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 110946
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
345 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2003

LOTS TO THINK ABOUT THIS MORNING.  SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH AROUND AN INCH BEING REPORTED IN THOSE 
COUNTIES.  THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS MOVING ACROSS 
CENTRAL MISSOURI...SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST QUITE NICELY...ALLOWING 
FLURRIES TO END ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING.  SURFACE ANALYSIS 
ALSO INDICATING AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT AS OF 08Z EXTENDED 
FROM NRN MN TO ERN NEBRASKA.  DECENT PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS MN...SO 
IT SHOULD PROGRESS NICELY TO THE EAST.  

00Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED RELATIVELY WELL...AND ARE 
CLOSE ENOUGH THROUGH 72HRS THAT HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE 
ETA/AVN FOR THE MOST PART. 

TODAY AND TONIGHT...AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING 
SITES...AGREE THAT WITH FRESH SNOW COVER TO THE SOUTH NOT EVEN 
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND SOME SUNSHINE WILL 
BRING TEMPS MUCH ABOVE 40 TODAY IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.  
AROUND AND INCH HAS BEEN REPORTED AND WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HAVE 
TO GO ACROSS THIS SNOW FIELD BEFORE IT GETS TO CWA...AND THOUGH THIS 
IS TYPICALLY A WARMING FLOW FOR US...IT WONT HAPPEN THIS TIME.  WITH 
INCREASED CLOUDS TO THE NORTH...AND THE QUICKER APPROACH OF THE 
FRONT AND THE SUBSEQUENT SNOW BEHIND FRONT TODAY WILL KEEP TEMPS 
FROM RISING ABOVE FREEZING. SO...QUITE A RANGE ACROSS CWA TODAY BUT 
MET CONDITIONS WARRANT.  
MODELS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A PRETTY DECENT SHOT OF SNOW ACROSS 
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS 
IS SUCH A FAST MOVING SYSTEM...AND SINCE THINK IT WILL BE A FAIRLY 
NARROW BAND OF PRECIP RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND MEASURABLE 
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK QUESTIONABLE...SO HAVE GONE WITH JUST CHANCE 
POPS.  IF HAD HIGHER POPS WOULD BE PUTTING IN ONLY ABOUT 1/2 INCH 
ACCUMULATIONS.  SHOULD GET PRETTY WINDY TONIGHT...BUT THINK THAT ARE 
LOOKING AT A FAIRLY NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR HIGH WINDS 
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WHEN WINDS DECOUPLE SOMEWHAT IN THE EVENING.  
FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED THAT WE WON'T MAKE ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT IT 
WILL BE QUITE BREEZY AND WILL WORD TEXT IN THIS MANNER.  WINDS WILL 
BE ONLY THING SAVING TEMPS FROM RADIATING OUT TONIGHT...BUT HAVE 
GONE ON COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE.  

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FIRST QUIET DAYS IN SOME TIME...THOUGH TEMPS 
ON COOL SIDE WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS WENESDAY.  THURSDAY TEMPS 
REBOUND QUITE A BIT AHEAD OF THE FRIDAY SYSTEM. 

TWEAKED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WX/POPS A LITTLE BASED ON MOST 
RECENT AVN...IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MISS THE 
CWA TO THE SOUTH...AND HAVE KEPT JUST CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN 
2/3RDS OF THE CWA AND LEFT NORTHERN THIRD DRY.  OTHERWISE...NO 
CHANGES TO EXTENDED.

COORDINATED WITH EAX...STL...AND DMX...THANKS.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

LRE