[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 2/4/03 5:22:27 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 041130
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
530 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2003

SYNOPTIC PICTURE THIS MORNING SHOWS 500MB TROF HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
AREA.  AT THE SURFACE A DEEPENING 985MB LOW HAS MOVED EAST INTO
EASTERN MICHIGAN.  THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS BEGINNING TO EASE OFF IN
WESTERN IOWA...BUT WINDS ARE STILL SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH AS FAR
WEST AS CENTRAL IOWA. WIND CHILLS HAVE DROPPED TO 10 BELOW ZERO IN
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE WINDS TODAY...
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE IMPACT OF SNOW COVER...
AND COLD FRONTS IN THE THURSDAY AND SUNDAY TIME FRAMES.

THE SHORT-TERM MODELS AGREE ON RELAXING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20
TO 30 MPH RANGE THRU MOST OF THE DAY NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
DUBUQUE TO PRINCETON ILLINOIS. LINGERING FLURRIES NORTHEAST WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SOON AFTER SUNRISE.  THE 500MB COLD POOL IS
ALSO MOVING RAPIDLY EAST...SO IT SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY...EXCEPT FOR
A FEW MORNING CLOUDS EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY IN THE TEENS
TO AROUND 20. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
THIS EVENING SHOULD DROP RAPIDLY DUE TO THE SNOWCOVER...BUT WILL
STEADY OUT AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE OVERHEAD IN THE 04Z-08Z TIME
FRAME.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS AGREE ON A RE-ENFORCING
COLD FRONT AROUND 12Z THURSDAY...WITH A FOLLOWING 500MB TROF
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND A SECOND COLD FRONT EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY.  NEITHER OF THESE FRONTS WILL HAVE ACCESS TO SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE.

WILL STAY CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN STAYING BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES IN DAYS 5 THROUGH 7.  CAN NOT SEE ANY
REASON FOR QUITE AS MUCH AS A WARM-UP AS MRF/MEX WANTS...WITH
SUSTAINED NORTHWEST FLOW.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

REA