[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 8/13/2003 4:58:09 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 132154
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
453 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2003

SYNOPTIC PICTURE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
UP...WITH A FETCH COMING INTO THE DVN FORECAST AREA OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN.  AT 500MB A HIGH EXTENDS FROM COLORADO TO MINNESOTA...
PRODUCING A NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS A COLD
FRONT IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.

THE SHORT-TERM MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING GENERALLY
LIGHT THURSDAY.  A WEAK VORT MAX WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...SHEARING OUT AS IN LIFTS NORTH TO DBQ IN
THE MORNING.  AT THE SURFACE...AN INVERTED TROF OVER THE AREA WILL
RETROGRADE WEST ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN MAINTAINING
CONTROL INTO SUNDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
SUNDAY...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE SHORT-TERM MODELS ON
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.  AT 500MB THERE IS ALSO
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS...WITH THE UK AND
EUROPEAN KEEPING HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO NEXT WEEK...SHUNTING
ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE NORTH...WHILE THE MRF/AVN DEVELOP NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER OR JUST NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...AND
MAINTAINING INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.

WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES TO TONIGHT...AND THEN IN THE MONDAY TIME
FRAME FOR THE COLD FRONT.  WILL ALSO BACK OFF ON HIGHS SUNDAY A
TOUCH...AS AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT.


.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

REA