[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 8/11/2003 3:08:02 PM

Mon, 11 Aug 2003 15:08:02 -0500

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.

FXUS63 KDVN 112004
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
230 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2003

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH COMBINED WITH VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL WAVE DROPPING
ACROSS IOWA TRIGGERING CONVECTION.  ATMOSPHERE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
WITH CAPES >2000 AND LIS AROUND -3. CONVECTION HAS POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS WITH WIND GUSTS >50 MPH. CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AS THE VORT EXITS THE AREA AND
HEATING IS LOST.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY...LIMITING PRECIP FOR
MOST OF THE CWFA.  WEAK SHORTWAVE IN NORTHEAST FLOW MAY CLIP
SOUTHERN ZONES...SO WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

MODELS ARE COMING IN LINE ON THE PATTERN TRANSITION BY LATE
WEEK...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SETTLING OVER THE CENTRAL US.  THIS WILL
CUT PRECIP CHANCES FOR FRIDAY.  COLD FRONT ON TARGET FOR LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL WARRANT LEAVING POPS IN OVER THE
WEEKEND.

NO MAJOR TEMPERATURE SWINGS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

33