[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 8/10/2003 2:34:03 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 101931
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
230 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2003

SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGGING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. STORMS
MOVING AWAY FROM MAIN UPPER SUPPORT AND INTO LESS FAVORABLE AIR MASS
(LOWER INSTABILITY AND AWAY FROM THETAE CONVERGENCE) AS THEY PROGRESS
EASTWARD...SO SEVERE RISK IS MINIMAL THIS EVENING.  SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL WASH OUT MONDAY AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY WORK ITS
WAY IN MONDAY NIGHT.

UPPER PATTERN WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT IN EARNEST TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE UPPER LOW
RETROGRADES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN EVENTUALLY
INTO TEXAS BY THURSDAY.  DURING THIS TIME FRAME...DRY SURFACE RIDGE
HOLDS PRECIP AT BAY.  TUESDAY SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS
HUMID.

GULF OPENS UP FRIDAY AND SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF
RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES
EXIST IN THE MODEL HANDLING OF THE UPPER PATTERN SHIFT BEYOND
WEDNESDAY..SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

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