[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 8/9/2003 4:23:56 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 090921
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
410 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2003

RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC TO MAKE FOR A FAIR WX DAY TODAY.
ANOTHER DAY OF STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE
LOW 80S TO MAKE FOR AFTERNOON CU...BUT FEEL EXTENT TODAY NOT
ENOUGH TO RUIN MOSTLY SUNNY WORDING. CU RULE SUPPORTS SCTRD
AFTERNOON CU...WITH BROKEN DECK FORMING MORE TO THE EAST OF THE
DVN CWA. WITH EXTENT OF INSOLATION AN FCST THERMAL PARAMETERS
TODAY...WOULD EXPECT MUCH OF THE CWA TO STRIVE INTO THE MID 80S. BUT
FEEL A WEAKER MIXING DAY ON TAP...AND ALONG WITH BIT COOLER START TO
THE DAY...MORE LOWER 80S AND 83'S TO BE EXPECTED. FETCH FROM RIDGE
CENTER/CENTRAL WI SOURCE REGION ALSO LENDS TO THESE VALUES WITH SOME
MODERATION.

SHORT RANGE MODELS GENERALLY SIMILAR IN SETTLING SFC RIDGE CENTER
RIGHT OVER THE CWA TONIGHT. RESULTANT CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS MAY
SUPPORT PATCHY FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO BE
WORTHY OF ZONE MENTION. SOME CI POSSIBLY TO STREAM IN OFF MCS
SPAWNING GROUNDS IN THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHWEST MN OVERNIGHT...BUT
FLAVOR OF THE NIGHT TO STILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR.

AS SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIPS ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...SLIGHT
LLVL FLOW RETURN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MID 80S. ETA...UKMET AND GFS SIMILAR IN SHARPENING LARGE
UPPER RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST WITH SLIGHT RETROGRADATION(IS THAT
REALLY A WORD?)OVER THE ROCKIES. ARCHING FLOW AROUND THIS PERSISTENT
FEATURE TO SPILL NORTH-NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THICKNESS
PATTERNS RIGHT DOWN THE MS RVR VALLEY BY LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODELS STILL VARY ON THIS...BUT THE AREA MAY BE OPENED UP TO
SOME CONVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST BLEEDING DOWN INTO THE AREA MAINLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP CONVECTIVE INDICES...LLVL JET FEED AND
MAINTENANCE...AND THICKNESS PATTERNS SUGGEST WEST HALF OF IA MORE
OPEN TO STORM/REMNANT MCS PROPAGATION. STILL WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES
GOING OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED IF NOTHING MAKES IT INTO THE LOCAL CWA. WHERE WEAK BOUNDARY
LAYS OUT ON MONDAY IS WHERE SOME CONVECTION POSSIBILITY TO OCCUR...
WITH UNCERTAINTIES DEFINITELY THERE. WOULD BANK ON BOUNDARY/
BOUNDARIES LAYING OUT IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FOR CONTINUED LOW
POP CHANCE.


DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

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