[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 8/6/2003 3:41:08 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 062038 CCA
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
337 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2003

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION ALL AT LEVELS...AND
ANY WEATHER DURING THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE GENERATED MAINLY BY WEAK
TROUGHS OVER-TOPPING THE RIDGE AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW.

ONE OF THESE TROUGHS CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY IS SETTING OFF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  ACTIVITY OVER THE LOCAL AREA HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
AND EAST OF A WEAK SURFACE THETA-E RIDGE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AND IS DIURNALLY ENHANCED.

TONIGHT...MODELS AGREE IS DROPPING THE TROUGH OVER THE CWA DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.  WHILE MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS DIURNALLY
ENHANCED...THIS TROUGH MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME ACTIVITY
GOING EVEN AFTER SUNSET.  500MB TEMPS OF -13 AT INL THIS MORNING
WERE COLDER THAN WITH THE SHORTWAVE WE HAD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LAST
NIGHT...INDICATING THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE PUNCH TO
IT.  WITH HIGH DEW POINTS...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AFTER TROUGH
PASSAGE TOWARD SUNSET SHOULD PERMIT DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG AGAIN.


THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NW FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH REMAINDER OF PACKAGE. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN THURSDAY AND SHOULD BRING A THREAT OF
SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI. SHOULD AGAIN SEE PATCHY FOG LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING FROM NEW RAIN. RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EAST ON FRIDAY AND
NEXT VORT MAX SHOULD BRING PRECIP CHANCES EAST OF CWFA.

QUIET WX FOR THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
AVN LOOKS A LITTLE OVERDONE SUN/MON TIME PERIOD IN BRING A SURFACE
LOW THROUGH THE AREA. ECMWF/UKMET LOOKS MORE PLAUSIBLE. FAR SOUTH
MAY GET BRUSHED WITH SOMETHING ON MONDAY BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

TUE/WED TIME PERIOD...WX DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE. UKMET
INDICATES EASTERLY FLOW WHICH WOULD KEEP MORE CLOUDS/COOLER TEMPS
OVER THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY. OTHER MODELS
SUGGEST THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN. TIME WILL TELL. FOR NOW WENT WITH
CHANCE POPS TUE AS THERE SHOULD BE A VORT MAX THAT ROTATES THROUGH
THE AREA...WITH WED BEING DRY.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

WOLF/SF