[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 8/3/2003 3:02:30 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 031959
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
250 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2003

NEAR TERM...
AS THE VORT...SEEN SPIRALING DOWN ACRS THE AREA ON W/V IMAGERY...
GETS MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...CVA PUNCH INTO UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
END..AS WILL THE SCTRD CONVECTION DOTTING THE AREA. WILL STILL
HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME LINGERING EVENING ACTIVITY IN ZONES...BUT
WILL THEN CLEAR OUT THINGS AS SFC RIDGE NOSES DOWN THE UPPER MS RVR
VALLEY. FEEL TEMPS TO GENERALLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S AGAIN OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH POSSIBLY REACHING
DOWN INTO THE MID 50S. PREFER THE MET LOWS...BUT FWC VALUES CLOSE
AND ALSO LOOK REASONABLE. ALTHOUGH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND
TEMPS COOLING TOWARD DPTS TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT...FEEL DENSE FOG
THREAT NOT TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ZONE MENTION.

UPPER LOW CENTER TO SLOWLY GYRATE ACRS LOWER MI ON MONDAY...AND
UNLIKE TODAY...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A INCOMING VORT TO GENERATE
WIDESPREAD SCTRD CONVECTION. BUT...AGAIN AN UNSTABLE SET UP IN THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS(ALTHOUGH BEST LLVL INSTABILITY TO SET UP JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA)JUST TO THE WEST OF COOL CORE UPPER LOW...
WOULD THINK AN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM SCENARIO TO UNFOLD. WILL TREND TOWARD THE NGM SOLUTION
WHICH DEPICTS THIS...WHILE GFS AND ETA/META ARE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK
MIXING DAY AND AFTERNOON CU SUGGEST COOLER MET HIGHS MAY BE THE WAY
TO GO...GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.   ..12..

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
PESKY UPR LOW FINALLY LIFTS AND MOVES INTO ONTARIO.  MEANWHILE OUR
RGN REMAINS UNDER NW FLO WITH A STG RDG OVR THE SWRN US.  MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH DROPPING A WK SHRTWV THRU OUR RGN ON TUES.  THIS
SHRTWV GOES THRU APPARENT DEEPENING AS IT HITS THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROF ACRS OHIO VLY ON WED.  BELIEVE THE PCPN SHOULD END BY
LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY SO HAVE KEEP WEDNESDAY DRY.  SFC HI
PRES BUILDS INTO THE RGN THRU DAY 6 AS WRN UPR RDG GRADUALLY BUILDS
INTO THE CENTRAL US.

LATE DAY 6/DAY 7 HOLDS THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS.  AS UPR RDG BUILDS
INTO AK...STG TROF TRIES TO SQUASH THE EMERGING CENTRAL US RDG.  THE
RESULT IS POTENTIAL CDFNT MOVG SLOWLY INTO IOWA...POSSIBLY STALLING
OUT ACRS OUR RGN.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

BELLES