[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 8/1/2003 9:47:47 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 020245
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
940 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2003

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WASHING OUT BUT LOOKS TO BE LYING ROUGHLY FROM 
EAST OF DUBUQUE TO SOUTH OF WASHINGTON. LACK OF SUFFICIENT 
CONVERGENCE COUPLE WITH LOSS OF SOLAR INSOLATION HAS LED TO DEMISE 
OF ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS. KDMX WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLD CONVECTION
THOUGH HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER NORTH CENTRAL IA...WHICH 
LOOKS TO BE NEAR H85 FRONT. MSAS ALSO SHOWS AREA OF SURFACE MOISTURE 
FLUX CONVERGENCE WITH WATER VAPOR DEPICTING VORT MAX DIVING SOUTH
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IA ATTIM. RESULTANT PVA SHOULD BE 
MOVING EAST JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE...CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLD
CONVECTION NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT OVERALL EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT.
SATELLITE SHOWS MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPANDING OVER WESTERN MO WHERE 
PRESSURE FALL MAX LOCATED...SO THIS SHOULD BE MAIN FOCUS 
FOR CONVECTION INITIATION OVERNIGHT. PLAN ON REMOVING POPS. 
LIGHT WINDS...RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RECENT RAINS IN SOME AREAS 
(ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I 80) WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG MAINLY MVFR VSBYS. 
TEMPS LOOK OK AND ANTICIPATE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. HOPE TO HAVE 
UPDATED ZONES OUT SHORTLY AFTER 10 PM. 

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

05