[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 8/1/2003 3:56:47 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 012047
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
340 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2003

COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF QUAD CITIES WEST THROUGH 
JUST SOUTH OF KOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION 
ONGOING ALONG FRONT FROM EAST CENTRAL/SE IOWA EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL 
ILLINOIS WITH A FEW TSRA STILL DEVLOPING FURTHER WEST INTO CENTRAL 
IA.  UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NR THE MN ARROWHEAD.  REGIONAL 
RADAR COMPOSITES SHOWING SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING IN UNSTABLE 
AIRMASS NEAR UPPER LOW ACROSS ERN ND NRN MN INTO THE NRN HALF OF WI.

TSRA TRENDS TONIGHT AND A THEN THE CLOSED H5 LOW WILL BE THE MAIN 
FORECAST CONCERNS.  TSRA THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND 
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDAY FOR THE EVENING HOURS. RUC SHOWS H3 
SPEED MAX OVER CENTRAL IL NOW...AND ITS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FURTHER 
SOUTHEAST.  SO WITH BOUNDARY SAGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND LOSS OF 
HEATING AND DYNAMICS...STORMS SHOULD DIE OFF BY MIDNIGHT OVER MOST 
OF THE CWA.  I'LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A LOW CHANCE OF TSRA ACROSS 
THE S...WITH THE FRONT STILL ACROSS NRN MO BY 06Z. AFTER TONIGHT 
TSRA CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS 
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHIFTING H5 
LOW SOUTH THROUGH WI.  COOLER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS TO ACCOMPANY H5 
LOW AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE COOLER MAV NUMBERS THROUGH THE 
PERIOD.  


EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD MOVING H5 
LOW SLOWLY TO MOVE EAST AND KEEPING NW FLOW OVER THE AREA.  BY 
THURSDAY THOUGH...UKMET IS QUICKER BREAKING DOWN WESTERN U.S RIDGE 
THAN THE GFS/ECMWF.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS AND KEEP DRY 
WX AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

DLF