[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 4/28/2003 10:03:50 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 290301
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
945 PM CDT MON APR 28 2003

WILL BE UPDATING TOWARD END OF SHIFT FOR WORDING. OVERALL FORECAST TONIGHT
IN GOOD SHAPE. WINDSHIFT AT 02Z VICINITY OF QUAD CITIES WITH
DRYING NOTED IN IT/S WAKE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE L/M30S FROM CID TO DBQ.
LOW TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE NUDGED UPWARD IN NORTH WHERE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT...WHILE IN THE SOUTH LOWS MAY BE TOUCH TOO WARM 
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR.

MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH PCPN TIMING TUE/TUE NIGHT. GLANCE AT 00Z DATA
COMING IN...AND REALLY DON/T SEE A LOT OF FOCUS FOR PCPN ON TUE...WITH 
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING FROM UPPER MIDWEST INTO GREAT LAKES AND 
RIDGING INTO AREA. BULK OF PCPN LIKELY OUT TO OUR WEST IN PLAINS WITH ADVECTION
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOULD PCPN SNEEK IN TO THE WEST LATE IN DAY...DON/T 
SEE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS...RATHER JUST RAIN. 
PCPN MORE INCLINED TO DEVELOP OVER AREA TUE NIGHT AS FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTH. LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO BOUNDARY AND DEPTH OF COOL AIR SUGGESTS 
PCPN STRATIFYING WHILE LIFTING NORTH...WITH THREAT OF SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IN
FAR SOUTH CLOSER TO FRONT. 

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$