[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 4/27/2003 4:22:58 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 270918
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
418 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2003

FUN TIMES ARE AHEAD FOR US THIS WEEK WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN AND AN
EAST WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE RIDGE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. ALL MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE CWFA
UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. DRY GROUND AND AIR SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH
OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MODELS OFFER DIFFERING OPINIONS. AVN IS ODD MAN
OUT IN CREATING A SMALL MCS AND MOVING IT THROUGH THE CWFA. HOWEVER
CONCEPTUAL MODELS POINT TO CONVECTION INITIATION IN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO LLJ
STARTING TO STRENGTHEN AND CREATING LIFT. THIS COMBINED WITH A WEAK
TO MODERATE VORT MAX WILL INDUCE A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND SEND IT
EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWFA TONIGHT. PRECIP TO BREAK OUT/MOVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF IN THE 03-07Z TIME PERIOD. HERE MOSTLY RAIN
EXPECTED WITH A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. SOUTHEAST HALF OF CWFA TO
SEE MORE OF A CONVECTIVE TYPE OF PRECIP MOVING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PRECIP TO LINGER DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF
CWFA.

THINGS TURN REAL INTERESTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ALL
SIGNALS POINT TO ANOTHER MCS TO DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS AND MOVE INTO
THE CWFA BY TUESDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE SOME RESPECTABLE RAINS FROM
THIS EVENT.

DIDN/T DO MUCH WITH THE EXTENDED. MODELS INDICATE EAST WEST FRONT
TO MOVE BACK THROUGH THE CWFA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
SIGNIFICANT WAVE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS AND MOVES NORTHEAST. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND FRONT COOLING THINGS DOWN AGAIN TO AROUND
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

SF