[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 4/26/2003 3:43:13 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 260840
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
340 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2003

ALL MODELS SHOW SURFACE RIDGE TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS CWFA DURING THE
DAY BRINGING QUIET WX TO TODAY/TONIGHT. AFTER YESTERDAYS DISASTER
WITH TEMPS...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH WARMER FWC.

BIGGER QUESTION NOW IS WILL THERE BE PRECIP DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON SUNDAY. GULF IS BARELY CRACKED OPEN AND MOISTURE IS TAKING
THE SCENIC ROUTE GETTING HERE. MORE IMPORTANTLY...WHERE IS THE
TRIGGER TO GET THINGS STARTED. ALL MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY AND LOW
CAPES...BUT NO NOTICEABLE VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY THE
META INDICATES CONVECTIVE TEMP ON SUNDAY RANGES FROM 79-86...AND
CURRENTLY FORECAST TEMPS BARELY REACH THE LOW END. THAT AND FRONT
STILL HASN/T REACHED THE CWFA BY MAX HEATING. THEREFORE HAVE
TRIMMED BACK POPS/AREAL COVERAGE TO FAR WEST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF NOTHING HAPPENS AT ALL UNTIL UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT.

FRONT MOVES INTO CWFA SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAKES MOST OF MONDAY TO
REACH THE SOUTHERN CWFA. AFTER THAT LOCATION OF THE FRONT WANDERS
AROUND OR NEAR THE CWFA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. DIDN/T PLAY MUCH WITH
THE EXTENDED HOWEVER MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY LOOKS WET.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

SF