[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 4/25/2003 4:09:24 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 250903
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
403 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2003

MIX OF RUC AND META IS BEST HANDLING THE PRECIP FROM STACKED SYSTEM
THAT WILL PASS SOUTH OF CWFA IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM. PRECIP IS
NEARLY LINING UP WITH THE OVERALL OMEGA FIELDS. USING META/RUC AS A
GUIDE PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
30 WITH PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES NORTH OF THERE. LIFT DISAPPEARS
AFTER MID MORNING AS NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN STRENGTHENS.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW CLEARING TO OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WX THEN TURNS QUIET THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

CLOUDS TODAY SHOULD AID IN SUPPRESSING TEMPS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
WITH FAR SOUTH NOT BUDGING MUCH AT ALL. AFTER THAT STAYED CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE BUT FAVORED COOLER MAV NUMBERS WITH RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON
SATURDAY WITH DOWNWARD MOTION EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...SURFACE FLOW BECOMES FAIRLY STRONG WITH APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. GULF IS NEARLY SHUT OFF AND WHAT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE IS
TAKING THE SCENIC ROUTE TO GET TO US. FORCING IS ESSENTIALLY ALONG
FRONT AND HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP UNTIL AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. DESPITE CLOUDS...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
PUSH TEMPS TO MAV NUMBERS AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE ABOVE THAT.

HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES FOR REMAINDER OF EXTENDED. PERIOD LOOKS
TO BE VERY INTERESTING. DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL YOU BUY...WE COULD
SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER OR SEEING EVERYTHING PASS
JUST TO THE SOUTH. WILL WAIT A FEW MORE RUNS TO SEE WHAT TRANSPIRES
WITH MODELS.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

SF