[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 4/23/2003 2:02:05 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 231859
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
200 PM CDT WED APR 23 2003

SYNOPTIC PICTURE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN
COLORADO...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD AS GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN UP. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
FRONT FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  AT 500H...A
RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S...WITH A TROF OVER THE EASTERN
ROCKIES...AND A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS ARE SEVERAL PRECIP
EVENTS...THE FIRST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...INTO FRIDAY...THE
SECOND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A SHORT WAVE SKIRTS TO OUR
NORTH AND LAYS DOWN A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE
THIRD TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS AND
LIFTS THRU THE AREA. THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR PRECIP OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE MODELS ARE NOW PROJECTING THE SURFACE LOW TO GO ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI A LITTLE EARLIER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...
WITH THE LOW PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE FRIDAY 12Z TIME
FRAME...AND THE 500H LOW FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND...ALMOST STACKED.
THE LOW WILL MOVE AT A SLOW PACE INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY 06Z
SATURDAY.  CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO
THICKEN AND LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.  VV'S STAY STRONG SOUTH
PRETTY MUCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  UPPER SUPPORT AT THE JET LEVEL WILL BE MAINLY
SOUTH ALSO...EXCEPT FOR SOME 300MB DIVERGENCE NORTH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.  RAIN SHOULD PULL OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
THE HEAVIEST RAINS FOR THIS EVENT WILL BE FROM BRL SOUTH...AND
ESPECIALLY FROM EOK SOUTH.

RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.  UNDER STRONG
SWLY SURFACE FLOW...TEMPS SUNDAY SHOULD APPROACH 70.  HOWEVER...
LITTLE TIME FOR RETURN FLOW BEFORE NEXT COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...SO
WILL DELAY POPS UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CFP.

WILL ALSO DELAY NEXT CHANCE UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF STRONG
WARM FRONT.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

REA/DD