[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 4/20/2003 1:53:46 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 201852
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
150 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2003

.OVERVIEW...UPPER MIDWEST COVERED BY LARGE...OCCLUDED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE EXTENDING WELL BACK INTO PLAINS. UPPER
ANALYSIS SUPPORTS SATELLITE TRENDS OF LOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS
SYSTEM.  AREA RADARS SHOW SOME SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN IN WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE BACK INTO DAKOTAS.  TEMPERATURES AT 18Z REMAINING COOL UNDER
CLOUDS AND MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH 40S UPSTREAM AND MAINLY
LOWER 50S ACROSS OUR AREA.

...CLOUDS AND TEMPS MAIN NEAR TERM ISSUE WITH MID WEEK SYSTEM NEXT
CONCERN...

.DIAGNOSIS AND DAYS 1-3...STACKED SYSTEM LARGER FEATURES REASONABLY
HANDLED BY MODELS BUT DIURNAL INDUCED SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN UNDERDONE
AS EXPECTED. WILL USE PERSISTENCE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WHICH IS LOWS ON
HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDS AND SOME SPRINKLES AND CHANCE LIGHT
RAIN.  THEN...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND LOW SIDE FOR HIGHS MONDAY WITH STRONG
CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING SPRINKLES AND CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN.  CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING WITH LITTLE
CHANCE OF FOG DUE TO NW WINDS AND DRIER AIR.  TEMPS WILL THEN TREND NEAR
BLEND FOR HIGHS INTO WEDNESDAY AND ONCE AGAIN LOW SIDE TUESDAY AM AND
WEDNESDAY DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIGHT EAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY WILL TREND ON MILD SIDE WITH RETURN EAST TO SE FLOW.

.EXTENDED (THU-SUN)...ALL MODELS SHOW NEXT SYSTEM SLIDING EAST WITH
SURFACE LOW NEAR TO JUST SOUTH OF I-70.  THIS PUTS AREA IN COLD CONVEYOR
BELT OF WRAPAROUND MOISTURE.  MODERATE TO STRONG EAST WINDS AND SFC
CONFLUENT FLOW SUPPORT COOL TEMPS WITH LIKELY POPS OF RAIN WITH VERY
STABLE LI'S OF +10 TO +15. WILL TREND LOWER THAN MEX THU/FRI FOR HIGHS.
THEN NICE SPRING WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

NICHOLS