[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 4/19/2003 9:23:58 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 200220
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
920 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

00Z RUC CONFIRMS SUSPICIONS THAT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS ARE
SHOWING. A NARROW TONGUE OF THETA E AT H85 AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE IN JUXTAPOSITION. THIS WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI AHEAD OF UPPER FEATURES.

WAS INITIALLY CONCERNED ABOUT CONVECTION IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI
MAKING IT UP HERE. HOWEVER RADAR TRENDS SHOW THAT THIS IS
STRATIFORMING OUT...SO THE ONLY AREA TO WORRY ABOUT IS THE LEADING
EDGE IN MISSOURI WHICH IS CONVECTIVE. RUC TRENDS INDICATE BEST
INSTABILITY TO BE OVER THE SOUTH THIRD TONIGHT...BUT WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A WHILE BEFORE UPDATING CURRENT FORECAST. SVR
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CWFA LOOK UNLIKELY...BUT
SOUTH THIRD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. STILL THINK BEST CHANCES OF SVR
TO BE SOUTH OF CWFA.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

SF