[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 4/8/2003 2:53:58 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 081951
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
251 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2003

SYNOPTIC PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS 500MB TROF FINALLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.  AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS IS HEADING OUR WAY.  CLEARING SKIES
ARE JUST MAKING IT INTO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES.  WINDS ARE STILL
AROUND 10 MPH OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLED TO GET INTO THE LOWER 30S IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST IS QUIETING DOWN AFTER OUR VENTURE WITH A LATE SEASON SNOW
STORM.  SNOW IS STILL A FEW INCHES DEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST...BUT HAS MELTED SOUTH TOWARDS INTERSTATE 80.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE COLD TEMPERATURES NORTH TONIGHT...
POSSIBLE DENSE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA.

THE MODELS AGREE ON THE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT.  WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND LOW WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND NORTHWEST WHERE THE SNOW COVER CONTINUES.  FOG WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE AVIATION VARIETY AT WORST DUE TO COLD TEMPERATURES
FREEZING SURFACE MOISTURE.  THE SAME MAY NOT BE TRUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WHERE MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILDER.  LOOKING
FURTHER AHEAD THE MRF DEVELOPS A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  THE UK BRINGS THIS FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  AFTER THIS...SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WILL STILL CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST.  WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT HOLD OFF ON MENTION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS IS
FURTHER OUT IN TIME. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION OF PRECIP OVER THE
WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH WARM/STATIONARY FRONT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...
BUT MENTION PRECIP MONDAY AND TUESDAY PER MEX GUIDANCE AND
LIKELIHOOD THAT NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BE DUE BY THEN.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

REA