[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 4/6/2003 5:39:39 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 061036
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
536 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2003

IF IT WASN/T FOR THE TIME CHANGE...I/D BE DOING WELL TIME WISE. HAVE
HOISTED WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF CWFA WITH
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES SOUTH THIRD.

ONLY CHANGES FROM 24 HOURS AGO IS THAT THE MODELS ARE BECOMING
WETTER (NO SURPRISE) AND A LITTLE SLOWER. OVERALL TREND IN MODELS
SHOW THE FIRST LOW OCCLUDING IN WESTERN MISSOURI TONIGHT WITH A NEW
LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. COLD CONVEYOR BELT REMAINS
VERY LARGE AND DEEP. THIS IS HELPING TO PULL MOISTURE FURTHER BACK
INTO THE COLDER AIR. I EXPECT THE 12Z MODEL RUNS TO BE A JUST A
LITTLE WETTER THAN 00Z RUNS. QG FORCING IS VERY IMPRESSIVE ALONG WITH
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT. MODELS STILL SHOW A PARTIAL COUPLING OF THE JETS
WHICH WILL INCREASE THE AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION FURTHER. MODELS ARE
SHOWING THIS AS 700 OMEGA IS NOW MUCH STRONGER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ESSENTIALLY BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
CWFA TO PROMOTE ALL SNOW. EXCEPTION IS THE SOUTH THIRD WHERE A LAYER
OF WARM AIR ALOFT AND RIGHT AT THE SURFACE IS NOTED. SLIGHT DRYING OF
THE SOUNDINGS TOWARD THE SURFACE INDICATES SLEET POTENTIAL AND WITH
SOUNDINGS ISOTHERMAL AND VACILLATING AROUND FREEZING THIS EVENING...
THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN EXISTS.

SNOW TO CONTINUE HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF
IN THE AFTERNOON. FIGURING A FAIRLY WET SNOW...STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS
OF 8-10 HIGHWAY 30 ON NORTH...6-9 I80 CORRIDOR TO HIGHWAY 30. IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...3-5 NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34 AND 2-3 SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
34.

SNOW SHOULD LINGER INTO MONDAY EVENING BEFORE GOING TO FLURRIES.
CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS H5 TROF MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FLURRIES CONTINUE TUESDAY
MORNING. NEW SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE
MOVES IN SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET.

DID NOT PLAY WITH EXTENDED DUE TO TIME CONSTRAINTS AND WX. HOWEVER
TEMPS MAY STILL BE A LITTLE TOO WARM WED ON. RETURN WAA OVER SNOW
FIELD SHOULD PROMOTE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND FOG LATER THIS WEEK.

COORDINATED WITH DSM.

.DVN...WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
IA...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
IAZ040>042-051>-054-063>068-076>079
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
IAZ087>089-098-099
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
ILZ025-026-034-035
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING
MOZ009-010

$$

SF