[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 4/3/2003 4:13:13 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 032202
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
402 PM CST THU APR 3 2003

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
DURING THE DAY TODAY.  THE SURFACE FRONT SAGGED SOUTH TO EXTEND FROM
NEAR KAWG TO JUST SOUTH OF KVYS THIS MORNING...AND HAS MOVED BACK
NORTH A LITTLE...BUT ONLY EXTEND FROM KCID TO KSQI.  AS OF 330 PM...
THE FRONT WAS MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES METRO AREA. THE
SURFACE LOW HAS BEEN TRACKING A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST ALL DAY SO
FAR...MOVING FROM NEAR KOFK TO NEAR KEBS. IT SHOULD CONTINUE THIS
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF EAST MOVEMENT INTO THE EVENING HOURS...PUSHING THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT NORTH ALSO. SURFACE TEMPS OVER CENTRAL IA AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE LOW HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 70S...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 50S. PERHAPS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THIS AREA SOME
TSTMS WILL INITIATE IN THAT AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE MOVEMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW...AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPS.

12Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED REASONABLY WELL...WITH THE ETA
HAVING THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SURFACE LOW POSITION...AND THE
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA.  AVN NOT TOO FAR BEHIND...AND
HAVE IN GENERAL GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS FOR THE FIRST
24 HOURS.  LATER ON...THE ETA SEEMS TO HAVE SOME PHASING PROBLEMS...
AND HAS TWO SURFACE LOW CENTERS WHERE IT SEEMS THAT THE SOUTHERN
LOW SHOULD TAKE OVER AND MOVE NORTHEAST.  HAVE GONE WITH THE MORE
NORTHERLY AVN SOLUTION WITH JUST ONE SURFACE LOW THAT EXITS TO THE
NORTHEAST FROM ITS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS POSITION 18Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED...MONDAY-THURSDAY
MAIN STORY OF THE EXTENDED RANGE IS THE LINGERING PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN THE COLD AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.  BIG QUESTION MARK FOR MONDAY ALL ALONG HAS
BEEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE LATEST RUNS ARE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS...SO I HAVE PUSHED THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH.  STILL TOO EARLY TO DECIDE ON POSSIBLE
SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT COULD SEE THE FAR NORTH WITH AN INCH OR SO.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS QUIET...WITH THE MAIN QUESTION TEMPS.
HAVE COOLED OFF WEDNESDAY...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE HANGING ABOUT
FOR LONGER...SO WENT BELOW GUIDANCE THAT MORNING.  THURSDAY SHOULD
BEGIN A GRADUAL WARM-UP IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND WENT A LITTLE ABOVE
GUIDANCE.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$
LE