[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 4/1/2003 3:09:06 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 010905
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
305 AM CST TUE APR 1 2003

WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF CWA.  AS OF 06Z WARM FRONT EXTENDED 
FROM WESTERN WI INTO SERN IL.  A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES WEST 
FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER WEST CENTAL WI INTO NRN SD.  AIR IN THE WARM 
SECTOR WAS PRETTY MILD WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S 
EARLY THIS MORNING.  U/A PATTERN OVER THE U.S. AT 00Z WAS DOMINATED 
BY A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. BETWEEN TROUGHS OVER THE WEST 
AND EAST COASTS.  

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY 
AND THURSDAY THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE SURFACE FRONT SAGGING SOUTH 
THROUGH THE REGION AND ITS IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES.  MODELS WERE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AND 
STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR NORTH MOVES LITTLE.  UPPER LOW OVER NRN 
HUDSON BAY MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT AND 
WEDNESDAY...FORCING STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH.  ETA IS THE MOST 
AGGRESSING TAKING FRONT TO THE MO BORDER BY 06Z THURSDAY WHILE THE 
GFS HOLDS FRONT OVER NRN IA INTO NRN IL. MODELS THEN MOVE A WAVE 
ALONG THE FRONT AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES EAST. GFS TRACKS WAVE 
OVER NRN MOST COUNTIES OF CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE ETA 
MOVES WAVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CWA.  OVERALL WILL SIDE THE ETA THIS 
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH WILL NOT MOVE FRONT QUITE AS FAR SOUTH. PREFER 
TO TAKE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH SINCE THE POTENTIAL FOR BIG 
TEMPERATURES BUSTS LOOMS.   FA SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. 
WAVE MOVING ALONG BOUNDARY DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD GENERATE 
AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED TSRA. SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME 
SEVERE  STORMS WITH MODEST CAPES ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI 
RIVER AND GOOD SHEAR JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW.

.EXTENDED...
NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN 
ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH 
EJECTS OUT OF THE SW U.S. TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY LATE 
SUNDAY.  SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL MO EARLY MONDAY WITH GFS 
SHOWING H8 TEMPS AROUND -12C OVER CWA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  TEMPS 
ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW AS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE 
REGION.  GFS HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE UKMET WITH UA FEATURES 
SIMILAR BY MONDAY MORNING. THE UKMET THOUGH KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW 
FURHTER SOUTH THAN THE GFS.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

DLF