[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 9/30/02 2:00:24 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 300709
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
205 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2002

.OVERVIEW...MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP AS WITH DEVELOPING TROUGH
ON WESTERN COAST OF UNITED STATES.  LEE SIDE TROUGH NOW WELL
ESTABLISHED WITH 30-40 KT WINDS PUSHING LOTS OF WARM AIR INTO AREA.
LIMITED FORCING DIMINISHES SHOWERS AND STORMS IN CENTRAL US FOR NOW.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS CHANNELED FLOW SHOULD LIMIT POPS TO MORE ALONG
NEXT BOUNDARY.

...WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF FRONT AND THEN STORMS CHANCES AND ANY RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS NEAR TERM ISSUES AND THEN CLOUDS AND POPS WITH
OVERRUNNING SITUATION MEDIUM RANGE ISSUE...


.DIAGNOSIS AND DAYS 1-3...CURRENT CONVECTION HANDLED BEST BY NGM AND AVN
WITH ETA POOR WHICH WITH THIS TYPE OF LIMITED FORCING NOT UNUSUAL.  WILL
GO WITH ETA FEATURES AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL TRENDS BUT INTEGRATE NGM QPF
WHICH ARE CONSISTENT. THUS...PARTLY SUNNY BY MID DAY AND BREEZY WITH LOW
LEVEL JET AND HIGHS JUST A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER ON AVERAGE MOST AREAS
THAN SUNDAY.  MAY NEED TO INCLUDE NEAR RECORD WORDING SOME AREAS WITH
HEAT.  WILL USE NOWCAST TOOLS BUT DON/T ANTICIPATE POPS TODAY AS ANY
THAT ARE DEVELOPING OF DSM/OMA 88D/S MORE LIKELY TO STAY WEST OF AREA.
HIGHS 1-2 CATEGORIES ABOVE MAV/FWC BLEND DUE TO WAA AND SUNSHINE.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NW AREAS TONIGHT AS FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN
INCREASING TO LIKELY BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FRONT PASSING WITH SOME
SEVERE STORMS VERY POSSIBLE.  WILL LEAVE WORDING OUT FOR NOW BUT PASS TO
DAY FOLKS TO CONSIDER AS LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE WINDS AND SOME HAIL...PUT IN HWO.
KEEP TEMPS WARM SIDE AHEAD OF FRONT TIL WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS
SOUTH HALF WEDNESDAY WITH SOME OVERRUNNING.

.EXTENDED...(THU-SUN)

...LATEST MODEL MIX SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM T.S.
LILI TO PHASE WITH WESTERN WAVE FOR FIRST SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD
RAINS LATE WED INTO FRIDAY AM.  PLAN ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR NOW AND
LEAVE TO DAY SHIFT TO CONSIDER LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL ISSUES DUE TO
TIMING CONCERNS.  HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WITH STRONG SW UPPER
FLOW...MODERATE STRENGTH WAVE AND OVERRUNNING EVENT STRONGLY SUGGEST AT
LEAST .5 TO 1.5" RAINS MOST AREAS WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THE AREA DEFINITELY
NEEDS THE RAIN.  UKMET BEYOND 72 HOURS STILL NOT IN AND WILL TRY AND
LOOK AT BEFORE ISSUANCE.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

NICHOLS