[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 9/28/02 11:20:08 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 281628
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1130 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2002

LOOKS LIKE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE ON TRACK SO FAR.  FOG/STRATUS WAS 
CLEARING RAPIDLY BASED ON LAST SEVERAL VIS IMAGES.  MOST SIGNIFICANT 
CLEAR OCCURRING ACROSS SE IA/NE MO.  SOME STRATUS WAS STILL 
LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS MORNING...BUT NUMEROUS HOLES 
HAVE DEVELOPED SINCE 15Z.  UPDATE WAS JUST SENT TO CLEAN UP THE 
CHANGE WORDING...BUT FOR THE MOST PART LEFT THE SPIRIT OF THE 
FORECAST INTACT.  THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT FORECAST TEMPS MADE BE 
A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE ACROSS NRN THIRD.  DVN SOUNDING SHOWED A 
DEEP...BUT WEAK INVERSION.  SINCE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IS ONLY FCST 
TO BE AROUND 10KTS WAS CONCERNED THAT LINGERING CLOUDS AND LACK OF 
MIXING MAY IMPEDE TEMPERATURE RISE.  HOWEVER...BASED ON PREVIOUSLY 
MENTIONED CLOUD TRENDS WILL KEEP CURRENT TEMP FCST AS IS.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS EVENING.  12Z RUN OF ETA/NGM SUGGEST THAT 
ONSET OF PCPN COULD BE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED IN THE NW.  GOOD WAA 
PATTERN IS IN PLACE WITH THETA-E ADVECTION ONGOING THROUGH THE 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SATELLITE/88D IMAGES SHOWING CONVECTION FROM 
WRN MN/ERN SD INTO NW IA AND ACCAS EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH OF NERN 
KS.  HOWEVER...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING -SHRA DEVELOPING  IN 
SERN NE...THE ETA/NGM QPF PROGS FOR 18Z APPEAR TO BE OVERDONE AND TO 
FAR S WITH DEVELOPING PCPN.  THUS...NO CHANGE TO EVENING FORECAST.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.