[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 9/27/02 4:28:23 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 270937
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
415 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2002

ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER SHALLOW COLD FRONTAL ZONE COMBINED WITH ADVANCING
SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTHEAST IA TO
SOUTHWEST IA AND SOUTHEAST NE WHERE FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FOUND.
SHORTWAVE TO MOVE EAST TODAY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENING.
THUS...FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEST OF RIVER WITH SPRINKLES EAST.
MAIN CONCERN IS LOW CLOUD TRENDS AND EXTENT OF SUNSHINE WHICH WILL MAKE
TEMP FORECAST TRICKY. BANKING ON BECOMING PTCLDY MOST LOCATIONS
WITH CLOUDS LIKELY TO HANG ON LONGEST IN THE NORTH. THUS WILL SIDE TOWARD
COOLER END OF GUIDANCE. 

TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN WITH OVERALL DECREASE IN CLOUDS THOUGH
LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW MAY KEEP CLOUDS HANGING IN ACROSS 
WESTERN ZONES...WITH FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE. WENT AT OR JUST BELOW 
COOLER END OF GUIDANCE IN NORTHEAST TRENDING TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE IN
THE WEST. 
 
FRONTAL ZONE SLATED TO RETURN NORTH AS WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND 
SUNDAY WITH ONLY CHC POPS ATTIM DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE 
AND CONVERGENCE. WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE ON MINS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH 
LOW LEVEL SOUTH WINDS.   

DECENT WARMUP AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW. NEXT FRONT PROGGED TUE.
TEMPS TRICKY TUE AND DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF FRONT...CLOUDS AND PCPN.
WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW FLOW...FRONT LIKELY TO SLOW A BIT MORE 
FROM MODEL PROGS...THUS CONCERN THAT TEMPS COULD BE UNDERDONE.
WILL PASS CONCERNS ON TO DAY CREW. ROLLER COASTER RIDE ON EARLY FALL 
TEMPS WITH COOL DOWN MID TO LATE WEEK. 
 

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

05