[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 9/26/02 2:49:40 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 260756
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
255 AM CDT THU SEP 26 2002

SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM SW KANSAS NORTHEAST TO UPPER MI.  THIS 
FRONT HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE SINCE ABOUT 18Z...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY 
OF PRESSURE RISES AND FALLS TO PROMOTE MOVEMENT.  ISIDORE NOW 
ONSHORE...SPREADING PRECIPITATION WELL INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  UPPER 
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATING BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MOST OF 
CONUS...WITH UPPER LEVELS OF ISIDORE DOMINATING THE GULF COAST 
AREAS.  PRESSURE FALLS INDICATE THAT THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE 
ITS NORTHERLY MOVEMENT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS FORECAST INCLUDE THE MOVEMENT OF THE 
FRONT...AND HOW MOISTURE FROM ISIDORE TO INTERACT WITH THIS FRONT TO 
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION.

00Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL.  THE AVN HAS THE 
BEST HANDLE ON THE ONGOING PRECIP...SURFACE PATTERN...AND POSITION 
AND STRENGTH OF ISIDORE.  HOWEVER...BY 24 HOURS...MAJOR DIFFERENCES 
APPEAR IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE ISIDORE...WHICH AFFECTS THE MOVEMENT 
OF THE FRONT HERE.  THE AVN AND UKMET MOVE THE STORM QUICKLY 
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  THE ETA AND NGM...AGAINST ALL 
CONCEPTUAL MODELS...STALL THE STORM ALONG THE COAST.  THE NHC ALSO 
FOLLOWING THE FASTER AVN MOVEMENT.  SO...WILL FOLLOW THE AVN MODEL 
ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY FOR THIS FORECAST.  

DO NOT EXPECT TO BE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD... 
WITH A WEAK FRONT SITTING IN THE VICINITY THE CHANCE OF RAIN ON 
SUNDAY LOOKS GOOD.  MONDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY...AND TIMING OF FRONT 
STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR TUESDAY SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY AGAIN LOOKS DRY.  

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

LRE