[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 9/25/02 2:43:00 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 251951
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
230 PM CDT WED SEP 25 2002

COLD EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO EASTERN NE IS WEAKENING AS IT 
PUSHES EAST.  ISIDORE JUST OFFSHORE OF EASTERN LA THIS AFTERNOON AND 
TRACKING NORTH.

MAIN QUESTIONS THIS FORECAST CENTER ON IMPACTS OF ISIDORE.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THROUGH 24 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...AVN ACCELERATES 
ISIDORE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY 48 HOURS. NHC AGREES WITH THIS 
SOLUTION...SO WILL DEFER TO THEIR EXPERTISE AND FOLLOW AVN.  
BRINGING ISIDORE NORTH SHOULD SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER WAVE 
IN THE NORTHERN STREAM.  SOME QUESTION AS HOW THE REMAINS OF ISIDORE 
WILL PHASE WITH THIS WAVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  FOR NOW...LOW 
POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK IN ORDER. INCREASING CLOUDS 
NEXT FEW DAYS SUGGEST MET NUMBERS TOO WARM.  WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF 
FWC AND MAV.

WITH THIS PHASING AND RAPID EXIT OF ISIDORE...WEEKEND SYSTEMS SHOULD 
TRACK A LITTLE FASTER THROUGH THE CWFA...SUGGESTING POPS MORE 
APPROPRIATE FOR SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY.  WILL LOWER SUNDAY POPS AND 
REEVALUATE TOMORROW BEFORE REMOVING ALTOGETHER.    

DUE TO MAJOR UNCERTAINTIES AND TIMING ISSUES...WILL NOT MAKE ANY 
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO LATTER PERIODS TODAY.  WILL INTRODUCE LOW 
POPS FOR TUESDAY AND THEN WEDNESDAY CLOUDY BUT DRY. 

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

33