[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 9/19/02 2:22:32 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 191929
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
230 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2002

MORNING UA ANALYSIS HAD SHARP TROF FROM NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE SRN
ROCKIES.  AT THE SURFACE AT 18Z...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH TROF
EXTENDS FROM ERN MN SOUTH THROUGH S CNTRL IA INTO ERN OK.  A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WAS STILL IDENTIFIABLE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SW MO.
MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OCCURRING FROM SW MO INTO
NERN IL SO FAR TODAY.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXTENT OF PCPN AHEAD
OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.  MODELS SEEMED TO INITIALIZE OK THIS MORNING.
BY 18Z ETA SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF
OVER CENTRAL KS/NE...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY PCPN PATTERN ON REGIONAL
RADAR COMPOSITE SUGGESTING CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER CNTRL KS AT 18Z.  ETA
ALSO DEPICTING SURFACE WAVE ALONG FRONT AT 18Z SIMILAR TO 18Z ANALYSIS.
WILL GO WITH THE ETA SOLUTION FOR THE SHORT TERM.  AS THE ETA MOVES
THE SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING IT HOLDS THE SURFACE
FRONT FURTHER WEST THAN THE AVN AND PRODUCES MORE QPF FURTHER WEST.
WHILE IT APPEARS THAT THE SIGNIFICANT PCPN TONIGHT WILL STAY EAST OF
THE CWA...COMBINATION OF WEAK SFC WAVE AND DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF H5 LOW
SHOULD ALLOW DECENT COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIVER. PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT
AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF RIVER...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS
THROUGH FRIDAY FOR COMBINATION OF DEFORMATION PCPN.  PAC NW S/W MOVES
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MODELS SUGGESTING SOME MID LVL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY.  AFTER SATURDAY COOL
DRY AIR MOVES IN...SENDING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND.


EXTENDED (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE GOING EXTENDED FORECAST WITH LONG
RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AUTUMN WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.  UPPER FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD TROF OVER CENTRAL
U.S.  IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH FLOW WILL DROP A COUPLE OF RE-ENFORCING
FRONTS THROUGH THE REGION.  HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP TO THE
SOUTH AND ISIDORE MOVING THROUGH GULF WILL DISRUPT MOISTURE RETURN
INTO THE MID-WEST...KEEPING REGION DRY.


.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.