[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 9/18/02 2:34:21 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 181940
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
239 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2002

FORECAST EVEN MORE COMPLEX THAN YESTERDAY. MODELS APPEAR TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION TOWARD THE FIRST GOOD RAIN FOR THE AREA IN
SOME TIME. COMBINATION OF THETA E RIDGE/LLJ ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT/STRONG FORCING POINT TO RAIN WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF CWFA. INITIATION SHOULD BE IN THE KTOP/KMCI/KFNB
TRIANGLE WITH IT QUICKLY EVOLVING INTO AN MCS...WITH NORTHERN MISSOURI
UNDER BETTER CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN. PRECIP TO COME IN WAVES WITH
POTENTIAL BREAK ON LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY. THEN NEXT
ROUND OF PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP OVER EASTERN HALF CWFA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD END FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK WAVE
MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SOME SPRINKLES.

AVN DEVELOPS NEW SYSTEM SUNDAY/MONDAY PERIOD BUT IT SHOULD MISS MOST
OF CWFA BEFORE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

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