[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 9/16/02 2:28:16 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 161934
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
234 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2002

SUNNY AND WARM DAY TODAY...WITH TEMPS ALREADY 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE 
YESTERDAY ATTM.  SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING THAT SURFACE RIDGE IS 
SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CWA...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALREADY 
AFFECTING MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL IA.  UPPER LEVELS INDICATING 
LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER PLAINS STATES...BUT WITH A STRONG LOW OVER 
WESTERN NEVADA...AND GOOD PRESSURE FALLS OVER MUCH OF THE ROCKIES. 

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS TODAY INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATE TUESDAY 
THROUGH THURSDAY.

12Z MODELS HAVING A BAD DAY...AND CANNOT AGREE ONCE PAST 48 HOURS.  
ETA DIGS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE 
AVN...AND WHILE THE AVN DOES CUT THE LOW OFF LIKE THE ETA...THE AVN 
IS NOT AS DEEP OR AS FAR SOUTH.  NEITHER MODEL LOOKS VERY 
GOOD...WITH THE DIGGING ON THE ETA LOOKING SUSPICIOUS...AND THE AVN 
PICKING UP SOME PRECIP BULLSEYES ON WEDNESDAY.  FOR NOW...WILL BE 
GOING MAINLY WITH THE AVN IS IT AT LEAST HAS SOME CONSISTENCY WITH 
THE PREVIOUS RUN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...AVN PICKING UP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MIRROR EARLIER ETA 
SOLUTIONS...SO WILL HANG ONTO THE OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION...THOUGH 
WILL GO WITH JUST CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST...AND SLIGHT CHANCE WEST. 

WEDNESDAY THE MAIN SYSTEM COMES IN...WITH THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING 
IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  CAN EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL 
EVENT...THOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS AVN.  BY THURSDAY AM THE MAIN PRECIP 
BAND SHIFTS EAST.  WILL BE GOING WITH JUST MORNING PRECIP FOR 
THURSDAY...AND COMPLETELY DRY BY EVENING.

WILL BE GOING MAINLY WITH AVN MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

EXTENDED...FRI-MON
CHANGES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST...WITH LITTLE CONSISTENCY FROM RUN 
TO RUN ON ANY MODEL.  FRIDAY ALL MODELS PUSH THE MAIN SYSTEM OFF TO 
THE EAST.  THE MRF HANGS ON TO A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE 
CWA...OF WHICH THE OTHER MODELS HAVE A WEAKER VERSION.  IT STAYS TO 
OUR WEST FOR FRIDAY...BUT MOVES THROUGH THE CWFA ON SATURDAY AND 
SQUEEZES OUT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  BY SUNDAY IT MOVES OUT. 
MONDAY THE MRF MOVES IN A NEW SYSTEM...BUT THIS LOOKS TOO FAST...AND 
WILL NOT PUT IN ANY PRECIP FOR NOW.  IN THE INTERESTS OF KEEPING POP 
WORDING DOWN...WILL TAKE POPS OUT OF FRIDAY...AND ADD TSRA AND 
CLOUDS TO SATURDAY.  CLOUDS NEED TO BE INCREASED FOR SUNDAY.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

LRE