[LeArc] Special Weather Statement : MLI@ 9/14/02 5:30:09 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


WWUS35 KMLI 141038
SPSMLI
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-151000-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
535 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2002

A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
TONIGHT...AND IN DOING SO WILL DRAG ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. OUT
AHEAD OF IT...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...BECOMING
MORE NUMEROUS AND WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS...AGAIN ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN THE SHORT WAVE TRAVERSES ACROSS IOWA. THE LACK OF REAL
DEEP MOISTURE...STRONG HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL DIMINISH THE
THREAT FOR ANY OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. HOWEVER...IF ANY
STORM CAN MAINTAIN ITSELF AND STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON...IT MAY
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. AREAS MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE SOME OF THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE IN AREAS WITH BETTER
HEATING AND BUOYANCY....MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
KEOSAUQUA IOWA...TO GENESEO ILLINOIS. WITH THE DELAYED ONSET OF THE
RAIN EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S...TO AROUND
80 DEGREES AGAIN IN THOSE AREAS. THICKER CLOUDS AND EVAPORATIVE
COOLING FROM THE INITIAL SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING
ABOVE THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

AS FOR RAINFALL...AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE JUST A FEW TENTHS AT MOST.
BETTER FORCING ALONG A SURFACE WAVE ON THE COLD FRONT AND LONGER
DURATION OF RAINFALL...MAY ALLOW AREAS FROM JUST WEST OF WASHINGTON
IOWA...TO THE DUBUQUE AREA TO EXPERIENCE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
THESE AREAS COULD RECEIVE ANYWHERE FROM THREE TENTHS...UP TO A HALF
INCH OF RAIN BY 6 PM THIS EVENING.

A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD DOWN ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT AND BRING AN END TO THE RAIN BY MIDNIGHT OVER MOST AREAS.
CLEARING AND COOLING CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE HIGH...
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SUNNY BUT CRISP SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL ONLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S...TO LOWER 70S.


SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

NOTE TO USERS:

EFFECTIVE OCTOBER 1...THIS PRODUCT WILL BE CHANGED FROM...SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER OUTLOOK...TO...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND WILL BE ISSUED
UNDER THE FOLLOWING HEADERS:

WMO HEADER:    FLUS43 KDVN
AWIPS HEADER:  HWODVN
MND HEADER:    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...E-MAIL JIM MEYER AT:
JAMES.MEYER@NOAA.GOV.

$$

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