[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 9/11/02 2:10:53 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 111917
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
217 PM CDT WED SEP 11 2002

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MORNING
ANALYSIS WITH TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S.  WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
PRESSURE RISES OR FALLS...WOULD EXPECT CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.  LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES QUIET HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MUCH OF IOWA...NEARLY CALM WINDS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST WINDS COMING OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI.  NICE CUMULUS FIELD COMING OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO
LAKE ENHANCED TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...SEEING HOW OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S IN NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA LAST NIGHT.  WITH
COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS AND ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER...WILL HAVE TO
THINK ABOUT KNOCKING OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN ONCE AGAIN.  NEXT
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF THE NEXT WAVE EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND...AND JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY MATERIALIZE.

GLAD TO SEE PREVIOUS FORECASTER BACKED OFF THE RAIN I BROUGHT INTO
THE PACKAGE ON FRIDAY.  AS IS TYPICAL...WITH EACH MODEL RUN...THE
SYSTEM IS BEING SLOWED...AND HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION UNTIL LATER RUNS.  THE AVN CONTINUES TO SHOW
BETTER CONTINUITY THAN THE ETA...ESPECIALLY WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

WITH SURFACE HIGH TO BE IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...
WILL DROP LOWS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 30 AND HIGHWAY 20 REGION INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 40S.  HIGHS TODAY WILL PROBABLY NOT REACH THE UPPER
70S...BUT SHOULD TOMORROW AS 850 MB WAA KICKS IN.  WILL LEAVE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR RAIN IN FRIDAY FORECAST...BUT BEST CHANCE
APPEARS TO BE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  THINKING AT THIS TIME IS TO
LEAVE 40 POPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND GO WITH 50 POPS ON SATURDAY FOR
NOW.

LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY STILL ON TRACK TO BE DRY AND COOL ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SATURDAY SYSTEM.  NEXT WAVE FORECAST INTO
THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL HAVE TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
INTO FORECAST AT THAT TIME.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

MEYER