[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 9/9/02 2:12:17 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 090713
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
213 AM CDT MON SEP 9 2002

MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN SLOWLY COLLAPSING RIDGE AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 1C COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS.
ACTUALLY HAD 2 TSRA DEVELOP IN CWFA YESTERDAY NEAR KIOW. ETA SUGGESTED
THIS YESTERDAY BUT DOES NOT TODAY. META ON THE OTHER HAND CREATES SAME
THING VICINITY OF KALO. MODELS SHOW AN H85 HIGH OVER SOUTHERN CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE BEST INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES LOCATED. LIFT
ESSENTIALLY ZERO OR NEGATIVE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO AGAIN SEE
ISOLATED 1-2 PERCENT COVERAGE IN CWFA...AND WILL INDICATE SUCH IN
GRIDS BUT NOT ZONES. MODELS ALSO AGREE IN SLOWING FRONT DOWN EVEN MORE
THUS PRECIP TO BE YANKED FOR TONIGHT NORTHWEST QUARTER. AVN SUFFERING
FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BY CREATING MCS THAT MOVES OVER CWFA ON
TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO INDICATE FRONT MAY WASH OUT OVER CWFA DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP SEEM TO BE NORTH THIRD WITH
LESSER CHANCES SOUTH. POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING INTO EARLY EVENING
TUESDAY ABOUT SOUTH HALF.

FWC/MAV QUITE SIMILAR FOR ALL PERIODS. HOWEVER WITH CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
TODAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT...TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER.
ONCE FROPA OCCURS ON TUESDAY...TEMPS SHOULD STEADY OUT OR SLIGHTLY
FALL FOR REMAINDER OF DAYLIGHT HOURS. MUCH COOLER AND PLEASANT TEMPS
FOR WEDNESDAY.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

86